Background
Arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are characterised as areas with 150mm to 550mm of rainfall annually and often very high temperatures throughout the year. Semi-arid lands (SALs) by contrast, are characterized with rainfall ranges of between 550mm and 850mm annually, often with shallow and infertile but variable soils (GoK, 2015b). These areas have high seasonality and annual variability in climatic parameters especially rainfall and temperatures with high rates of evapotranspiration. They are typical of steppe, dry savannas and tropical scrublands with scattered grazing lands. Globally, more than 1 billion people live in semi-arid lands and even more in the larger arid lands.
Arid and semi-arid lands are climate change hotspots (IPCC, 2007), where climate change is already having significant and documented impacts, such as longer and more frequent droughts and unreliable rainfall, what has been described as the ‘triple whammy’ of semi-arid regions (Mountfort, 2015). This high exposure to climate risk is coupled with lack of development, including poor infrastructure, poor access to markets, and high levels of poverty (De Souza et al., 2015). Challenges within the ASALs which are further exacerbated by climate change include food insecurity, limited diversified livelihood resources such as land, continued population increase, low economic and infrastructural development, limited access to markets, low productivity, water shortages and limited incentives for private sector investment.
Kenya’s semi-arid lands are home to more than 60% of the total livestock in Kenya, producing over 50% of meat consumed countrywide (KNBS, 2010). According to the Vision 2030 Development Strategy for Northern Kenya and Other Arid Lands – almost 90% of the land is classified as arid or semi-arid and is likely to expand with continued climatic changes (Republic of Kenya, 2012). These ecosystems host about 38% of the country’s population and continue to experience a boom in population as large numbers of people move to these areas in pursuit of emerging economic opportunities. For instance, semi-arid counties in Kenya have experienced an increase in population that is relatively higher compared to the national average, that is above 4% (Said et. al., 2018) as compared to the national average of 2.5% (World Bank, 2018).
Kenya recently re-focused its development targets into four key areas that are critical not only for economic growth, but also for social and environmental progress, of the country. The development targets – dubbed The Big Four Agenda – were launched on 2nd December 2017 by President Uhuru Kenyatta. The Agenda focuses on key basic needs critical in uplifting the standards of living of Kenyans on the path to becoming an upper middle-income country by 2030. These include: affordable and decent housing; affordable healthcare; food and nutrition security; and employment creation through manufacturing. These four areas are expected to bolster strong inclusive economic growth. Moreover, these key areas are expected to guide national development efforts, strategies and actions during the 2018–2022 period.
As a contribution to the realization of Kenya’s policy pursuits under Vision 2030 and the Big Four Agenda, this report synthesizes insights from a research project ‘Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies’ (PRISE). PRISE is a five
year, interdisciplinary multi-country research project that generates new knowledge about how economic development in semi arid regions can be made more equitable and resilient to climate change. PRISE aims to strengthen the commitment of decision makers in local and national governments, businesses, and trade bodies to rapid, inclusive and resilient development in these regions. It does so by deepening their understanding of the threats and opportunities that semi-arid economies face in relation to climate change. The PRISE consortium comprises the Kenya Markets Trust; Overseas Development Institute (lead), UK; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment, UK; Innovation Environnement Développement en Afrique (IED), Senegal; and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Pakistan. Country research partners include: Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, Tajikistan; University of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; and the University of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan.
Policy Brief: Contextualising Pathways to Resilience in Kenya’s ASALs under the Big 4 Agenda