Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges to the productivity and sustainable growth of the agricultural sector in Kenya. Studies have shown that climate change is negatively affecting agricultural productivity and production in Kenya due to extreme events such as droughts and floods as well as abrupt changes in temperature (Mariara and Karanja, 2006; Wens et al., 2018). These studies show that temperature increase is more threatening to the sector than are changes in precipitation. According to the World Bank Climate Country Adaptation Profiles (climate knowledge portal https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org), projections under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.51) show that temperature is projected to increase by 1–2.8°C by 2060, with the western regions of Kenya experiencing the greatest warming. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture is a major risk to the agricultural sector of climate change, which is expected to affect food security and increase poverty levels (Kabubo-Mariara, 2015; Kabubo-Mariara and Kabara, 2018).
Most studies on the potential threats of climate change to the agricultural sector in Kenya (Herrero et al., 2010; Bryan et al., 2013;Kabubo-Mariara and Kabara, 2018) take a broad approach to understanding the effect of climate on the sector, offering a general view of the effects and potential adaptation and mitigation measures with only limited analysis of the specifics of the different subsectors. The threats of climate change affect both productivity and profitability of the sector, limiting their growth and sustainable development (Abewoye, 2018). Climate change is also projected to affect investment in the sector (Lobell et al., 2008). The risks and threats of climate change in agriculture and the resultant adaptation and mitigation options depend on the specific crops and their related value chains (Mwongera et al., 2019), hence may not be generalized.
Horticultural crops, which are quite diverse, are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high water demand and strict temperature requirements. Climate change in the form of increased or decreased rainfall, increased temperature and drought, lack of water for irrigation, and vulnerability to pests and diseases can affect the suitability of areas for growing horticultural crops. As Singh (2013) noted, understanding the impacts of climate for a given crop under specific conditions is key to supporting further development of the horticulture sector.
A quick scan of the horticulture sector in Kenya found that most counties identified the sector as key in driving sustainable economic development (Matui et al., 2016). The sector is the second largest foreign exchange earner within the agriculture sector after tea, contributing 36% to agriculture’s share of GDP (KNBS, 2016) and continues to grow. However, Matui et al. (2016) noted that one of the limiting factors to the sector’s sustainable growth is the threat of climate change. Kenya has developed several policies to respond to climate change and build resilience, including in the agriculture sector. Through intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) (i.e. intended reductions in greenhouse gas emissions), Kenya aspires to achieve low-carbon and climate-resilient development by 2030 (MENR, 2015). As part of this aspiration, policies and action plans have been developed at both national and county level. The second National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP II) 2018–2022 (GoK, 2018a) and the Kenya National Adaptation Plan 2015–2030 (GoK, 2016) are the overarching guidelines for responding to climate change in the country.
Since devolution in 2010, county governments have played an important role in spurring agricultural development. With regard to climate change, based on the provisions of the Kenya National Adaptation Plan, counties are expected to mainstream climate resilience in their County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs) (see Box 1) to guide sustainable and economically sound sector development…..