Climate Change and Health: Bridging the Attribution Gap through Climate Epidemiology

By: Ann Irungu, Emily Bolo, Florence Onyango

Climate change, once a distant topic confined to scientific circles and environmental forums, is now an undeniable reality impacting every aspect of our lives. From extreme weather events to rising sea levels, it is widely recognized as a critical global issue threatening ecosystems, economies, and human societies. However, public discourse and policymaking often overlook the significant impacts of climate change on human health, although this has gained more attention recently.

Climate change exerts a substantial toll on human well-being, contributing to disease, injury,  displacement, hunger, emotional trauma and death. Healthcare systems,  vital in combating these effects, are themselves deeply affected. Hospitals, health centers, and healthcare providers not only care for persons experiencing the consequences of climate change but also face operational disruptions. These disruptions include power outages, infrastructure damage, and drug shortages due to supply chain disruptions, all of which hinder the delivery of high-quality care especially within developing countries.

Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) identifying climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century, there is a glaring lack of recognition and attribution of these health impacts. This hampers effective responses and exacerbates global health inequities.

The multifaceted and extensive health impacts of climate change include direct from extreme heatwaves, rising sea levels, and changes in precipitation that cause flooding, droughts, and intense hurricanes, which can lead to injury, illness, and even death. Indirectly, climate change can affect health through environmental changes. For example, worsening air pollution can exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Shifts in temperature and rainfall can alter the survival, distribution, and behavior of vector hosts and pathogens, leading to the emergence and resurgence of infectious diseases. Additionally, increased precipitation, storm surges, and sea temperature changes can lead to waterborne diseases and impact food security, resulting in a triple burden of malnutrition: undernutrition (stunting and wasting), micronutrient deficiency (hidden hunger), and overnutrition (overweight and obesity). The psychological impacts of climate change, though less visible, are profoundly significant for mental health. Extreme weather events, displacement, and loss of livelihoods contribute to solastalgia and eco-anxiety, leading to heightened stress, depression, and post- traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

There is a substantial attribution gap in recognizing and addressing the health impacts of climate change. In this context, attribution refers to the scientific process of establishing a causal relationship between specific health outcomes and the changes in climate patterns. Why is it of significance? Attribution studies are the most statistically rigorous ways of measuring the health burden of climate change. For instance, recent studies attribute the rise in heat-related illnesses in specific regions to a documented increase in average temperatures. This kind of evidence plays a key role in informing public health responses, such as allocating resources for heatstroke prevention measures. It has the potential to bring to light these growing costs of climate inaction. Attributing specific health outcomes to climate change is often a complex process due to the multifactorial nature of health, where various determinants such as socioeconomic factors, environmental factors, biological and behavioral factors play significant roles in population health outcomes. Despite this complexity, health impacts are often not attributed to climate change due to several reasons which may include:

  • Complex Causality : Health outcomes are influenced by a myriad of factors, making it challenging to pinpoint climate change as a direct For instance, heat-related illnesses and deaths are reported without acknowledging the role of climate change in increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.   Similarly,  the emergence, resurgence and transmission of infectious diseases like Malaria, Dengue, and Lyme disease are often attributed to changes in vector ecology without linking these changes to shifting climate patterns. Increased incidence of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and other respiratory issues due to higher concentrations of pollen and pollutants related to climate change, are frequently recorded without acknowledging the underlying climatic drivers.
  • Limited awareness and knowledge about how climate change impacts health exist among both policymakers and the public. This is despite the influence climate change has on prioritizing climate change adaptation policies. Public health experts, while aware of the general consequences of climate change, might lack sufficient knowledge of the specific health impacts. Their work also depends heavily on existing public health policies or adaptation frameworks, which may not adequately address climate-related health issues. This leads to insufficient recognition and prioritization of these issues in both health and climate policies.
  • Data Limitations – Several regions and risks are understudied due to limited high- resolution data linking health outcomes across space, time, and high-risk populations to climate change, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Health surveillance systems are also not equipped to collect and analyze data on climate-sensitive health
  • Economic and Political interests – Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas are by far the largest contributors to global climate change, accounting for over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions. Industries with significant economic stakes in activities contributing to climate change, such as fossil fuels, may downplay the links between climate change and health impacts to avoid regulatory constraints and liability.
  • Limited Expertise in Attribution – Few researchers are formally trained in every step of the attribution workflow and in different attribution techniques, which leads to a knowledge and practice gap. Best practices in climate science are also rapidly evolving but rarely documented and therefore lead to a lack of evidence that could help scientists catalog of climate change, especially in the vulnerable communities where investment in adaptation could make the most

Identifying and bridging these gaps holds immense significance as it could potentially influence climate and health policies, including loss and damage financing and litigation. It may involve directing investments towards enhanced research initiatives in the climate and health nexus, fortifying robust data collection mechanisms, and healthcare infrastructure. This includes training healthcare workers to recognize and manage climate-related health issues. Moreover, developing and strengthening existing climate-health surveillance systems that utilize indicators that can monitor and analyze climate health data will help in identifying trends and causal relationships. Leveraging technological innovations such as AI-driven data analytics can significantly improve the detection, prediction, and management of climate-related health challenges.

Furthermore, promoting collaboration between climate scientists, health professionals, epidemiologists, and data scientists will help develop comprehensive models and frameworks to better understand and attribute health impacts to climate change. Additionally, increasing policymakers’ and the public’s awareness of the health impacts of climate change through outreach programs and training will lead to more informed decision-making and resource prioritization. Moreover, co-creating climate adaptation strategies with local communities will significantly enhance resilience and ensure that climate-health interventions are effective and address their pressing needs.

Most importantly, health considerations should be integrated into climate policies and vice versa. This holistic approach will ensure that health systems are resilient and adaptive to climate change.

Several organizations working on the nexus of Climate Change and Health such as the Global Climate and Health Alliance, Africa Research and Impact Network, Pan African Climate Justice Alliance and Africa Climate and Health Alliance – all in Africa, among others, have been at the forefront of transdisciplinary research, capacity building and advocacy on the health impacts of climate change. Governments should translate knowledge and evidence from these research organizations to develop and implement policies that integrate health and climate change as well as allocate funds for research and infrastructure and engage in international cooperation on climate-health issues. Except for the Environment and Health sectors, other sectors such as Agriculture, Urban planning, and Transportation should consider health impacts in their climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

The lack of attribution of health impacts to climate change is a critical oversight that undermines global health efforts and exacerbates inequalities. To effectively address and attribute the health impacts of climate change, there is an urgent need for transdisciplinary research that transcends traditional silos.

This approach integrates knowledge from diverse fields such as climate science, public health and epidemiology, social sciences, Economics, and Urban planning, fostering a holistic understanding of the complex interplay between climate change and health. Transdisciplinary research through the formation of communities of practice, can generate robust evidence by combining quantitative data with qualitative insights, ensuring that the multifaceted nature of climate-related health impacts is comprehensively studied and understood.

Collaborative efforts across disciplines can help identify vulnerable populations, clarify

mechanisms and costs of impacts and develop innovative mitigation and adaptation strategies. By disrupting siloed research paradigms, transdisciplinary research can inform more effective policies, drive public awareness, and ultimately lead to more resilient health systems capable of responding to the evolving challenges posed by climate change.

© ARIN Press

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