Contributors:
Joanes Atela¹, Mary Nantongo², Humphrey Agevi¹, Washington Kanyangi¹, Florence Onyango¹
BACKGROUND
East Africa faces severe climate change impacts due to its reliance on climate-sensitive sectors and limited adaptation capacity. While predictions remain uncertain, East Africa will likely experience increased wetness (with more intense and unpredictable rainfall) and rising temperatures, amplifying flood and drought risks.
The region’s adaptive capacity, as measured by the Climate Resilience Index (CRI)[1], is relatively low compared to that of other African regions (AfDB, 2022). The region’s CRI score is 25.0, which is significantly lower than Southern Africa’s score of 43.6 and Northern Africa’s score of 63.5 (see Figure 1). The CRI varies between East African countries—from 18.3 to 28.9, with Djibouti, Kenya and Tanzania scoring highest, and South Sudan achieving the lowest CRI².
Figure 1: Climate Resilience Index scores across regions. Source: AfDB (2022).
Investing in impactful climate adaptation and resilience is critical to minimising future losses and fostering positive economic, social, and environmental outcomes. The adaptation investments must be hinged on effective adaptation actions in key sectors such as: food and agriculture, disaster risk reduction, water security, climate resilience infrastructure, resilient land management and nature-based solutions.
Despite some progress in integrating adaptation into national policies, such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and national adaptation plans (NAPs), critical gaps remain in policy implementation and investment in climate adaptation. Specifically, there is a lack of robust evidence on what interventions are more effective in addressing vulnerabilities and what opportunities exist for scaling up investments. Specific questions require attention, notably: whether initiatives are making a positive difference for vulnerable communities; and whether they are achieving their desired impact, i.e., promoting equity and providing good value for money.
This Policy Brief highlights key policy insights and recommendations synthesised from a broader study ‘Assessment of the effectiveness of climate adaptation interventions in East Africa’. The study aims to inform FCDO’s future adaptation programming by generating robust evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation interventions across nine countries of East Africa countries: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and South Sudan.
¹The Climate Resilience Index is calculated as RI = (ACI*TCI)/(EI*SI); where RI: climate resilience index, ACI: adaptive capacity index, TCI: transformative capacity index, EI: exposure index and SI: sensitivity index. The index is derived by considering GDP as well as readiness and vulnerability to climate change.